Prof. R. Gilmore Pontius Jr at LISER for two weeks

Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr is professor and associate director of the Graduate School of Geography at Clark University in the United States. In the frame of its stay at LISER, he is working on land change science.

Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr is professor and associate director of the Graduate School of Geography at Clark University in the United States. He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics, a Master’s degree in Applied Statistics, and a doctorate in Environmental Science. His areas of expertise are Geographic Information Science and Land Change Science. He has more than 100 scientific publications and has been on the editorial boards of 13 journals. He is staying with us at LISER for two weeks, working with Hichem Omrani concerning land change science. In this frame, he gave a seminar in which he presented the lessons and challenges in land change modeling that emerged from years of reflection and numerous panel discussions at scientific conferences concerning a collaborative cross-case comparison.

Abstract
The lessons are summarized as nine challenges grouped under three themes: mapping, modeling, and learning. The mapping challenges are: to prepare data appropriately, to select relevant resolutions, and to differentiate types of land change. The modeling challenges are: to separate calibration from validation, to predict small amounts of change, and to interpret the influence of quantity error. The learning challenges are: to use appropriate map comparison measurements, to learn about land change processes, and to collaborate openly. To quantify the pattern validation of predictions of change, we recommend that modelers report as a percent of the spatial extent the following measurements: misses, hits, wrong hits and false alarms. The seminar explains why the lessons and challenges are essential for the future research agenda concerning land change modeling.