Webinar: The Economics of Migration (Senior Seminar)

Date & Time:  May 26, 2021 - 17h30 (CET)

Speakers: Cristina Cattaneo (European Institute on Economics and the Environment)

Register here (Zoom)

Topic: Climate Variability and worldwide migration. Current evidence and future projections (joint with Fabio Farinosi)

Abstract:

The literature linking climatic drivers and migration is growing, but there is still limited evidence and substantial uncertainty on multilateral flows on a global scale. This paper fills this gap in research by projecting changes in inflows and outflows of migrants from medium-term population and climate change. We estimate a panel bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for various indicators of decadal weather averages in the origin countries. We control for temperature, precipitation, droughts, and excess precipitation. The sample covers 100 origin and 166 destination countries for each decade from 1960 to 2010. We project bilateral changes in migration using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, along with projections of socio-economic variables under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and climate change scenarios from General Circulation Models (GCM) for various representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We find that average decadal emigration flows increase from 80 to nearly 140 million depending on the SSP, RCP and future year. Changes in migration are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries. By constraining the population of the origin countries to remain at current levels, we find that the number of climate international migrants is comparable in size to the emigration flows observed today.

About the seminar series:
This is a joint initiative of LISER's Crossing Borders research programme, CERDI, PSE,the University of Luxembourg and Universidad Carlos III. Its objective is to propose an opportunity to migration scholars for exchanging under the current exceptional circumstances.
Senior Seminars are held on Wednesdays at 17h30 CET.
Junior Seminars are held on Mondays at 17h30 CET
To learn more and view all Seminars click here