Abstract

Stalin and the origins of mistrust (with Olga Popova and Vladimir Otrachshenko)
Presenter: Milena Nikolova (University of Groningen)

We examine current differences in trust levels within the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and trace their origins to the system of forced labor during Stalin, which was marked by high incarceration rates and harsh punishments. Political repression was more salient and visible to local communities near places of repression. Therefore, we argue that those exposed to forced labor camps (gulags) became less trusting and transferred this social norm to future generations and communities. Combining contemporary survey data with the geolocation of forced labor camps, we find that living near former gulags lowers present-day social trust and civic engagement. These effects are above and beyond any experiences with war or civil conflict previously documented in the literature, indicating that the gulag system's repressiveness is a crucial trigger of the mistrust culture within the FSU countries today. As such, we furnish novel evidence on how past political repression matters for current socioeconomic outcomes.