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29 Jun 20 | News

LISER develops a new research model linking public health and economic effects of the COVID-19 crisis in Luxembourg

New Policy Brief: ‘Recovering from the Covid-19 crisis. Insights from an Epidemionomic Approach’

On June 25th, two LISER researchers, Dr. Michal Burzynski and Prof. Frédéric Docquier published a new Policy Brief1 entitled ‘Recovering from the Covid-19 crisis. Insights from an Epidemionomic Approach’ within a Task Force coordinating with the Public Research Sector in the context of the Covid-19 Pandemic.

The LISER study presents a new research model jointly developed by economists and epidemiologists that is parameterized on Luxembourg’s economy and accounts for crossborder labor movements within the Greater Region. This ‘epidemionomic model’ is then used to nowcast and forecast the public health and economic effects of the crisis week after week throughout 2020.

The researchers emphasize the risk of a rebound in the infection curve that could be driven by two main factors, namely the decrease in social distancing induced by the sudden resumption of social life and a rapid cessation of teleworking practices. To minimize the likelihood of such a rebound, five recommendations have been drawn from the study’s analysis:

- Maintaining a high level of teleworking practices wherever possible.
- Reopening HORESCA activities at half-capacity or with equivalent distancing measures.
- Maintaining physical distancing and hygiene measures in social and family contexts.
- Encouraging participation in PCR testing, and inviting both national and cross-border workers.
- Combining testing with phone-app contact tracing and quarantining measures would reduce the reproduction rate below that of testing policies alone combining testing with contact.

1 BURZYNSKI Michal, DOCQUIER Frédéric. Recovering from the Covid-19 crisis. Insights from an Epidemionomic Approach. LISER, 2020, Policy Brief n°6, 6 p