The CliC:ME model projects that more than 400 million people will move permanently because of climate hazards this century, yet many more will stay in the most affected areas. Overall, climate hazards alone could push 200 million adults below the extreme poverty line. Reducing migration costs changes little, as other barriers to mobility remain substantial. This supports the emphasis of the Global Centre for Climate Mobility (GCCM) on the right to stay and on localising adaptation. For Luxembourg, which invests about 1% of its national income in development, the study emphasises the importance of targeting the most vulnerable communities, testing pilot interventions before scaling them up, and rigorously evaluating their impact, as J-PAL does with randomised evaluations. Combining CliC:ME projections with field experiments offers decision-makers a practical way to design, test and scale effective adaptation policies where people live.
Cross-border workers earn about 40% more than they would have at home, but face costs on return, which are highest for the less skilled and those returning after long spells in Luxembourg.
